The rate at which the gender divide is opening up along ideological lines in multiple countries hints at the possibility of a blow-up at some point. The Korean statistics are shocking. Perhaps the trend will run out of steam or change course, but if it continues to some critical extreme, the emotionally charged nature of the gender divide would likely lead to a massive social transformation.
If I had to put money down on the outcome -- that is, should the trend continue to that critical extreme -- I would bet on the overthrow of feminism. I would certainly celebrate the end of feminism which is bad for men and women alike, but one hopes its demise would be orderly.
At this point, I think the massive social transformation is almost inevitable. It's a mathematical certainty that fertility will eventually recover, but I can't find any gentle corrective that's endogenous to our current system. I don't think this is the sort of problem that human beings are good at solving.
The only thing to consider is that everyone will get a shock when weird things start to happen to countries in East Asia, and maybe that will trigger more interest in finding a correction for the West. At some point, it might start to dominate elite opinion. For SK, it looks the years to watch will be around 2035-2040, because at that point, these tiny cohorts will be coming into working age while the biggest cohorts will be pushing into their mid-to-late-70s. And their population is only going to get older from there.
I entered West Point in 1972 at one of the low ebbs of the military, graduating in 1976 into Jimmy Carter’s “hollow army”. Recovering from Vietnam and a real animosity against the military (some in the crowd were throwing things at us as we marched in the 1973 Armed Forces Day parade in NYC in ‘73) I could give you a laundry list of the problems (e.g., racial, drugs, low recruitment, lack of training and equipment). Things changed dramatically for the better when Reagan came into office. After serving 23 years and retiring in 1999, the military was rebuilt.
But today the circumstances are different. While there is a widespread support for the military from the civilian sector, those in the retired ranks like me or those who have served are not encouraging young men to go into the military. Those in the higher ranks insist that the woke culture has nothing to do it with - those in the lower ranks tell a different story. Part of it is what is happening in the military, but a larger part I believe is what is happening in the larger culture where white males are being depicted as oppressors. Why would a young white male join the military if he is seen as the enemy and a largely white military is the epitome of that enemy?
The longer term problem is if this trend continues then we will have what the elites say they are trying to avoid - a military that doesn’t represent America.
1. Relevant to the church, on the gender divide, Ryan Burge has stats suggesting that religiosity is becoming more gender-balanced among young people, as opposed to the long-running female skew. My pet theory is that young women are becoming so liberal that it's contributing to their apostasy by alienating them from the church and its values. I've said before that, in the context of conservative or Republican spaces, the church is going to remain in Neutral or even Positive World for quite a bit longer than in mainstream spaces.
In other words, if you need a title for your sequel, I suggest "Men are from Positive World, Women are from Negative World." Ha!
2. I had been skeptical that the decline in military recruiting was driven primarily by conservatives stepping aside for political reasons (and I still think things like lack of a mission are relevant), but I acknowledge the stats on white recruiting are enough to lend a lot more credence to the idea. It also undermines the claim that issues like obesity and drugs are primarily responsible.
I had pointed out before that recruiting is down a LOT from the Cold War, a 70% decline even from the dark days of 1976, but considering the Army in those days was 80%+ white compared to 44% of new enlistees in 2023, white recruitment over that period has now decreased by something like 80-85%.
The rate at which the gender divide is opening up along ideological lines in multiple countries hints at the possibility of a blow-up at some point. The Korean statistics are shocking. Perhaps the trend will run out of steam or change course, but if it continues to some critical extreme, the emotionally charged nature of the gender divide would likely lead to a massive social transformation.
If I had to put money down on the outcome -- that is, should the trend continue to that critical extreme -- I would bet on the overthrow of feminism. I would certainly celebrate the end of feminism which is bad for men and women alike, but one hopes its demise would be orderly.
At this point, I think the massive social transformation is almost inevitable. It's a mathematical certainty that fertility will eventually recover, but I can't find any gentle corrective that's endogenous to our current system. I don't think this is the sort of problem that human beings are good at solving.
The only thing to consider is that everyone will get a shock when weird things start to happen to countries in East Asia, and maybe that will trigger more interest in finding a correction for the West. At some point, it might start to dominate elite opinion. For SK, it looks the years to watch will be around 2035-2040, because at that point, these tiny cohorts will be coming into working age while the biggest cohorts will be pushing into their mid-to-late-70s. And their population is only going to get older from there.
I entered West Point in 1972 at one of the low ebbs of the military, graduating in 1976 into Jimmy Carter’s “hollow army”. Recovering from Vietnam and a real animosity against the military (some in the crowd were throwing things at us as we marched in the 1973 Armed Forces Day parade in NYC in ‘73) I could give you a laundry list of the problems (e.g., racial, drugs, low recruitment, lack of training and equipment). Things changed dramatically for the better when Reagan came into office. After serving 23 years and retiring in 1999, the military was rebuilt.
But today the circumstances are different. While there is a widespread support for the military from the civilian sector, those in the retired ranks like me or those who have served are not encouraging young men to go into the military. Those in the higher ranks insist that the woke culture has nothing to do it with - those in the lower ranks tell a different story. Part of it is what is happening in the military, but a larger part I believe is what is happening in the larger culture where white males are being depicted as oppressors. Why would a young white male join the military if he is seen as the enemy and a largely white military is the epitome of that enemy?
The longer term problem is if this trend continues then we will have what the elites say they are trying to avoid - a military that doesn’t represent America.
1. Relevant to the church, on the gender divide, Ryan Burge has stats suggesting that religiosity is becoming more gender-balanced among young people, as opposed to the long-running female skew. My pet theory is that young women are becoming so liberal that it's contributing to their apostasy by alienating them from the church and its values. I've said before that, in the context of conservative or Republican spaces, the church is going to remain in Neutral or even Positive World for quite a bit longer than in mainstream spaces.
In other words, if you need a title for your sequel, I suggest "Men are from Positive World, Women are from Negative World." Ha!
2. I had been skeptical that the decline in military recruiting was driven primarily by conservatives stepping aside for political reasons (and I still think things like lack of a mission are relevant), but I acknowledge the stats on white recruiting are enough to lend a lot more credence to the idea. It also undermines the claim that issues like obesity and drugs are primarily responsible.
I had pointed out before that recruiting is down a LOT from the Cold War, a 70% decline even from the dark days of 1976, but considering the Army in those days was 80%+ white compared to 44% of new enlistees in 2023, white recruitment over that period has now decreased by something like 80-85%.
“Best of the Web” is outstanding. Keep it up