I don't see any evidence that we are leaving the negative world. All that we are witnessing is that prominent liberals, who previously adopted a progressive persona in order to have freedom to navigate, have sensed a shift in high places toward conservatism. So they are playing along. Acting more conservative is now the safer course, especially if Trump or the republican congress could potentially inflict damage on their activities. These are the liberals who are not liberal because of ideology but because they seek freedom from interference (Zuckerberg and Bezos, for example). Their businesses are susceptible to government action so they are maneuvering to avoid problems. Costco, on the other hand, is continuing unabated with its woke policies, probably because there is lower possibility of any action being taken against it. As for the liberal ideologues, they are pouting but looking for every opportunity to continue their woke policies below the radar, even in companies that are now supposedly jettisoning woke policies.
So while the negative world may have a new wardrobe, it hasn't changed course.
It would take a major movement for our society to change course. And it would almost certainly have to be led by men who are unapologetically ready to pursue extensive reform. It was men who capitulated to feminism over the last century and enabled the woke monster we have today; it will take men to overthrow it.
Conservative cultural shift - yes, and to me a large part of this is due to the fact that multiple major progressive shibboleths that they have been trying to impose via politics or cultural pressure are just flat out lies that a lot of the population has been exposed to and recognizes as BS. The benefits of mass immigration, DEI, and trans stuff are all prominent examples of this. Most of my left of center friends and family have turned on at least one of these things in just the past couple of years after previously thinking they were either good, not a major concern for society, or conservative conspiracy theories.
Decline of coupling - this is very disturbing. A lot of entertainment and social media promotes the idea of independent single people living their best lives, but that runs against the instincts and desires of the overwhelming majority of people. I suspect a lot of people that haven't had a much luck in relationships basically give up and adopt the trappings of the a fulfilled single life rather than keep trying and potentially going through more disappointment. But in the end there aren't enough brunches, fitness classes, or long weekend trips to exotic locations to fill that void.
That series of charts from FT is fascinating. On the US chart, you can see a gap where the coupling rate remains elevated starting around mid-2010's but the fertility rate continues to decline. To me, this data suggests that couples in the US really are *electing* to have fewer children, and that this differs from other countries experiencing a dropping fertility rate where coupling and fertility are much more tightly correlated.
Relatedly, there were some charts floating around in the past several months that were very interesting, showing, by country, the degree to which the fertility crash was driven by fewer 0th-1st-2nd-3rd order births, etc. And there was actually a lot of national variation in that data, more than you might expect when you look at other charts that show the fertility crash as being so tightly correlated across countries.
I don't see any evidence that we are leaving the negative world. All that we are witnessing is that prominent liberals, who previously adopted a progressive persona in order to have freedom to navigate, have sensed a shift in high places toward conservatism. So they are playing along. Acting more conservative is now the safer course, especially if Trump or the republican congress could potentially inflict damage on their activities. These are the liberals who are not liberal because of ideology but because they seek freedom from interference (Zuckerberg and Bezos, for example). Their businesses are susceptible to government action so they are maneuvering to avoid problems. Costco, on the other hand, is continuing unabated with its woke policies, probably because there is lower possibility of any action being taken against it. As for the liberal ideologues, they are pouting but looking for every opportunity to continue their woke policies below the radar, even in companies that are now supposedly jettisoning woke policies.
So while the negative world may have a new wardrobe, it hasn't changed course.
It would take a major movement for our society to change course. And it would almost certainly have to be led by men who are unapologetically ready to pursue extensive reform. It was men who capitulated to feminism over the last century and enabled the woke monster we have today; it will take men to overthrow it.
Couple of thoughts:
Conservative cultural shift - yes, and to me a large part of this is due to the fact that multiple major progressive shibboleths that they have been trying to impose via politics or cultural pressure are just flat out lies that a lot of the population has been exposed to and recognizes as BS. The benefits of mass immigration, DEI, and trans stuff are all prominent examples of this. Most of my left of center friends and family have turned on at least one of these things in just the past couple of years after previously thinking they were either good, not a major concern for society, or conservative conspiracy theories.
Decline of coupling - this is very disturbing. A lot of entertainment and social media promotes the idea of independent single people living their best lives, but that runs against the instincts and desires of the overwhelming majority of people. I suspect a lot of people that haven't had a much luck in relationships basically give up and adopt the trappings of the a fulfilled single life rather than keep trying and potentially going through more disappointment. But in the end there aren't enough brunches, fitness classes, or long weekend trips to exotic locations to fill that void.
That series of charts from FT is fascinating. On the US chart, you can see a gap where the coupling rate remains elevated starting around mid-2010's but the fertility rate continues to decline. To me, this data suggests that couples in the US really are *electing* to have fewer children, and that this differs from other countries experiencing a dropping fertility rate where coupling and fertility are much more tightly correlated.
I agree.
Relatedly, there were some charts floating around in the past several months that were very interesting, showing, by country, the degree to which the fertility crash was driven by fewer 0th-1st-2nd-3rd order births, etc. And there was actually a lot of national variation in that data, more than you might expect when you look at other charts that show the fertility crash as being so tightly correlated across countries.
I wish I saved the link.