I disagree that the election of Trump is going to lead to a scaling back of overt anti-Christianism on the Left. People's commitments to ideological positions are downstream of deeply personal resentments and dispositions. As I mentioned in my review of Bullivant's book last year, most of the angriest and most antagonistic Nonverts could trace their attitude back to a confrontation with an individual pastor, family member, or boss. The anti-Christianity was a post-hoc rationalization of that anger which made the individual antagonist into a totem of Christianity as a whole. The ex-Pentacostal couple in the book are the best illustration. They were normal Republicans until the wife got into a conflict with their pastor, then suddenly she discovered her religious doubts, her feminist principles, and her hatred of Donald Trump.
I'm afraid that anti-Christianity is a fundamental identity for many on the far Left, for similar reasons as those in Bullivant's book. I'd point to some of the journalism coming out the Left right now which is already attempting to scapegoat Evangelicals for whatever Trump ends up doing. They don't care that Trump isn't a Christian, that the Right is growing increasingly secular, or that Evangelicals are shrinking as a portion of the Republican coalition. They have a psychological need for Christians to be the enemy, and so whatever is Bad must necessarily in their mind be Christian, and vice versa.
Likewise, I think we should be fully aware that a lot of secular Rightists are only on our side because the Left hates us. That's why we should be wary of people like Hanania and Lindsay, and other "anti-woke" secular guys.
Meaning that despite oscillations back and forth between liberalism and conservatism, the general trend is still liberal. Similar to how the stock market zigs and zags but has longer term up or down trends.
It's a great framework. Ties in with the idea of cultural drift. I would posit the liberal supercycle persists until some combination of:
1. A sharply decreasing rate of socially disruptive technological change.
2. Society is driven by hard physical realities to become more oriented towards survival and reproduction.
By the way, it's nice living in a society with technological progress that can get away with not being that oriented towards survival and reproduction. We (or our descendants) will miss the liberal supercycle when it's gone.
I believe Aaron has pointed this out in the past, but Trump as much as he represents a Republican win, he does not represent a Christian win. I think in terms of Christian culture and Christian mores, Trump is far from being a leader on this. That is not to say he cannot provide a great bulwark for 4 years from the flood tide of negative culture. But that does not prevent a backlash, nor ensure culture gains during or after his presidency. I think of it more as a lull, than a success in stemming the tide of negative culture.
The tide is out, but that doesn't mean it won't be back.
I think what we might see is a continuing decline in Classical Liberalism as represented by most Western Nations in the late 20th Century. I also think that "peak woke" may have been in 2020 as we're seeing both Corporations and the Government backing away from DE&I initiatives.
What replaces it will not necessarily be culturally accomodating to Christianity. I think what we're going to see is a rise in the Spiritual but not Religious crowd. We'll still be left with a culture that seeks Self Actualization and personal autonomy rather than a culture that prizes and builds mediating institutions.
I think Michael Horton's three volume work "Shaman and Sage" is going to be an important set of works helping Christians to understand the roots of these world spritualities. I think he makes a compelling case taht Western philosophy/spiritually was pulled away from a natural tendency toward what is called Axial theology. With the decline of Christian influence on culture it is pulling back in that direction and all the interest in "sprituality" and psychadelics is a return to the state that many cultures find themselves in. It is a heavy read but worth the effort.
The point is that many in America will want to pull away from Woke but the spirituality that is arising will be inimecal to Chrsitianity.
The new more middle-of-the-road Repubs may have pivoted away from social issues, but that doesn't mean they were right in thinking it was a good strategy to do so. They may have just won in spite of their pivot, not because of it. I do agree with the rest of your thesis. It will be very interesting to watch how this moment in time plays out.
I disagree that the election of Trump is going to lead to a scaling back of overt anti-Christianism on the Left. People's commitments to ideological positions are downstream of deeply personal resentments and dispositions. As I mentioned in my review of Bullivant's book last year, most of the angriest and most antagonistic Nonverts could trace their attitude back to a confrontation with an individual pastor, family member, or boss. The anti-Christianity was a post-hoc rationalization of that anger which made the individual antagonist into a totem of Christianity as a whole. The ex-Pentacostal couple in the book are the best illustration. They were normal Republicans until the wife got into a conflict with their pastor, then suddenly she discovered her religious doubts, her feminist principles, and her hatred of Donald Trump.
I'm afraid that anti-Christianity is a fundamental identity for many on the far Left, for similar reasons as those in Bullivant's book. I'd point to some of the journalism coming out the Left right now which is already attempting to scapegoat Evangelicals for whatever Trump ends up doing. They don't care that Trump isn't a Christian, that the Right is growing increasingly secular, or that Evangelicals are shrinking as a portion of the Republican coalition. They have a psychological need for Christians to be the enemy, and so whatever is Bad must necessarily in their mind be Christian, and vice versa.
Likewise, I think we should be fully aware that a lot of secular Rightists are only on our side because the Left hates us. That's why we should be wary of people like Hanania and Lindsay, and other "anti-woke" secular guys.
“I see still us as in a longer term liberal supercycle.”
Could you expand on that? Or have you already?
Meaning that despite oscillations back and forth between liberalism and conservatism, the general trend is still liberal. Similar to how the stock market zigs and zags but has longer term up or down trends.
It's a great framework. Ties in with the idea of cultural drift. I would posit the liberal supercycle persists until some combination of:
1. A sharply decreasing rate of socially disruptive technological change.
2. Society is driven by hard physical realities to become more oriented towards survival and reproduction.
By the way, it's nice living in a society with technological progress that can get away with not being that oriented towards survival and reproduction. We (or our descendants) will miss the liberal supercycle when it's gone.
I believe Aaron has pointed this out in the past, but Trump as much as he represents a Republican win, he does not represent a Christian win. I think in terms of Christian culture and Christian mores, Trump is far from being a leader on this. That is not to say he cannot provide a great bulwark for 4 years from the flood tide of negative culture. But that does not prevent a backlash, nor ensure culture gains during or after his presidency. I think of it more as a lull, than a success in stemming the tide of negative culture.
The tide is out, but that doesn't mean it won't be back.
I think what we might see is a continuing decline in Classical Liberalism as represented by most Western Nations in the late 20th Century. I also think that "peak woke" may have been in 2020 as we're seeing both Corporations and the Government backing away from DE&I initiatives.
What replaces it will not necessarily be culturally accomodating to Christianity. I think what we're going to see is a rise in the Spiritual but not Religious crowd. We'll still be left with a culture that seeks Self Actualization and personal autonomy rather than a culture that prizes and builds mediating institutions.
I think Michael Horton's three volume work "Shaman and Sage" is going to be an important set of works helping Christians to understand the roots of these world spritualities. I think he makes a compelling case taht Western philosophy/spiritually was pulled away from a natural tendency toward what is called Axial theology. With the decline of Christian influence on culture it is pulling back in that direction and all the interest in "sprituality" and psychadelics is a return to the state that many cultures find themselves in. It is a heavy read but worth the effort.
The point is that many in America will want to pull away from Woke but the spirituality that is arising will be inimecal to Chrsitianity.
The new more middle-of-the-road Repubs may have pivoted away from social issues, but that doesn't mean they were right in thinking it was a good strategy to do so. They may have just won in spite of their pivot, not because of it. I do agree with the rest of your thesis. It will be very interesting to watch how this moment in time plays out.