How J.D. Vance Avoided Becoming Pete Buttigieg

Vance hoisted the black flag while Buttigieg remained a prisoner of the playbook

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There are a lot of parallels between the paths of J.D. Vance and Pete Buttigieg.

Though close to the same age, Vance (40) and Buttigieg (42) don’t superficially seem to have much in common. Vance grew up in a dysfunctional white working class world. Buttigieg was the child of Notre Dame college professors with big political ambitions from an early age.

But put childhoods behind, and see that both of them were on the elite professional-managerial fast track to the top via the standard series of résumé building activities.

Buttigieg went to Harvard, interned for a Democratic politician, was Rhodes Scholar, did a stint at McKinsey, served in Afghanistan as an intelligence officer in the Naval Reserves, ran for Indiana state treasurer, then did two terms as mayor of South Bend before running for President and landing a position as Secretary of Transportation in the Biden administration.

Vance served in Iraq while enlisted in the Marines, went to a state school where he worked for a Republican politician, then to Yale Law, a stint in big law and venture capital, wrote a political memoir, started a non-profit in Ohio, launched his own VC fund, then got elected to the Senate and is now the Republican nominee for Vice President.

There are definitely differences but a lot of similarities as well: both obviously highly ambitious and motivated, both deployed to a combat theater in the military, both with elite education, both with relatively short stints in elite business, both winning and holding elected office - even both Midwest/Rust Belt guys. Remember, Pete Buttigieg originally pitched himself as someone who understood the Rust Belt thanks to being mayor of post-industrial South Bend.

But just as there was a convergence between the two of them some time around their undergraduate education, there’s recently been a divergence.

J.D. Vance holds a major platform elected office already (Senate), and is positioned to be a leading contender to be President for the next several cycles. He’ll get multiple swings of the bat to make it into the Oval Office.

By contrast, it’s not obvious where Buttigieg goes from here. He’s in a comparatively minor cabinet post - DOT is sometimes the one cabinet position a President gives to someone of the opposite party - and was just passed over for VP by Kamala Harris. He isn’t qualified for a truly major cabinet office such as Treasury or Defense. He moved to Michigan, and so would have to completely reboot his political career in a new state in order to achieve a platform type position there. It’s not obvious that there’s a great path forward for him.

What happened?

Both of them were following the standard playbook to the letter. But somewhere along the line, J. D. Vance rebelled against the script. He was originally someone who talked about the way his own people needed to take responsibility for their lives, and who denounced Donald Trump like all the other dutiful mainstream people. He was on track to become a Republican Pete Buttigieg with a better backstory.

What changed his mind?

I can only speculate here. When I read Hillbilly Elegy, it seemed to me that he still had some stars in his eyes from the new world in which he found himself. He had not yet been in the elite world long enough to acquire the same critical distance from it that he had from his hillbilly roots.

At some point, however, perhaps he got there. Maybe he realized the folks at the top weren’t as elite as they made themselves out to be, that they too had problems they needed to face but were in denial about — and that they didn’t like his people or care about their problems much at all.

But whatever the case, Vance decided to throw out the playbook and hoist the black flag - the MAGA flag. Rather than echoing the typical talking poitns and waiting for his turn to come, he seized the opportunity in front of him. He saw that the GOP establishment, unwilling to deal with the very real problems laid bare by the Trump phenomenon, had left the proverbial crown lying in the street. And he decide to pick it up.

Make no mistake: that was a very difficult and costly decision for Vance. He went from being loved, or at least respected, to being loathed by a vast swath of the elite. The vast majority of us wouldn’t dare to make even a much smaller choice to go against the standard track, to rock the boat in even a minor way. But love him or hate him, Vance had the balls to lay it on the line. And it’s given him a legitimate shot at the Presidency as soon as 2028.

Buttigieg, by contrast, has never once colored outside the lines as near as I can tell. He’s still doing everything he’s supposed to do, following all the rules in the playbook. But in a cutthroat era where potential elites are a dime a dozen, he may never get the chance he longs for.

Maybe it’s not over for Pete. Perhaps Tim Walz will explode on the launch pad and he could be the replacement. But barring something like that, Buttigieg will need to find a way to overturn the game board the way Vance did if he wants to revive his own fortunes. Otherwise he’ll be left with the scraps other people give him.

There are probably some life lessons in there Vance could teach the rest of us. Vance’s willingness to go against the mainstream consensus and seize opportunity helped him avoid Buttigieg’s fate.

Cover image credit: JD Vance by Gage Skidmore, CC BY-SA 2.0; Pete Buttigieg by Phil Roeder, CC BY 2.0