Welcome to my weekly digest for June 23, 2023, with the best articles from around the web and a roundup of my recent writings and appearances. Indicators of Interest My Tuesday post on why there are plenty of good fish in the sea
On the idea that rightist objections to Woke are driving the recruiting crisis, I recall that some data-minded individual on the right (Lyman Stone?) presented some pretty persuasive evidence that it's not really true, that a much greater driver is decline of patriotism and trust in the military on the left. I just took a look for that argument, can't seem to find it, but would recommend taking it seriously.
IIRC the idea is that increasing distrust in the military on the right is "very online" and concentrated among the sort of people who are unlikely to join the military or encourage their kids to do so in the first place. Which, to be sure, is a group that includes myself. Meanwhile the decline among Democrat-leaning young people is extremely broad-based.
The collapse of Afghanistan was a disaster that I can't stop thinking about in terms of the corruption and incompetence it revealed about everyone involved in the US nation-building apparatus, including the military's top brass. My already-low opinion of them sunk further than I thought imaginable. But apparently I'm weird, everyone else has moved on, no one cares, no one involved was ever really even rebuked for it, so I don't know that it has damaged recruiting.
I've heard people say that -- again, online. I just wonder how much it has left online and made it to the real world, particularly when it comes to the enlisted class and not the would-be officers. The older enlisted veterans that I know (and I know several, mainly through church connections) don't seem to be this way. They might shake their heads at some of what's happening, but I haven't heard any of them imply that it's no longer a good life choice. One of them recently had a daughter join the Navy, and he was very proud of it.
It's based on surveys that show an utter collapse in enthusiasm for the military and joining the military among white Democrats, while white Republicans are basically unchanged -- on a slight downward slope since 2018, but above 2015 levels.
The argument from the data is that white Democrats went from being roughly 70% as likely to join the military as white Republicans in 2015 to being around *15%* as likely in 2021. And the decline was even more severe among white Democrat *men*.
Maybe this can be debunked but I haven't seen anyone challenge it, I've just seen everyone keep on asserting that the shortfalls are coming from the right without any data to support it.
Regarding the adult bounce house article. When I was looking for spots to visit on our summer vacation I found a park geared towards preschoolers with nursery rhyme characters, etc. I noticed they were closing early one night during our trip to setup for a "party" night geared towards young adults. The lack of maturity in that generation is something I cannot understand.
As someone who married later than I should have, I had a girlfriend I dated for too long in my 20s who always wanted to do things like this. She was also a "Disney Adult". And honestly a very unhappy person, though she hid it reasonably well from most people.
Here's my take, after witnessing my share of this behavior from her and her friends:
1. It has its roots in a purposeless life full of anomie. The last time such a person really remembers being happy and possessing joie de vivre was as a child.
2. Life naturally becomes monotonous and starts to lose its color if you live it too long centered on your own entertainment. Rather than acknowledge that you need something else to bring life satisfaction as an adult and that the power to achieve it has been given to you, there's a temptation to try to find a way to just recapture that high from childhood.
3. It never works. No one is really having that good a time with these activities, but there's a lot of pressure to fake it, both from those around you and internally, to try to convince yourself. And, you know, it's *sort of* fun, and it's different. Maybe the next thing like this you try will be more fun.
Now, you could still ask, "what changed?" Surely there were single people chasing cheap and empty thrills 50 years ago -- but thrills of a more "adult" nature, rather than trying in vain to recapture the joy of childhood. On that part, I have some theories, but I'm not really sure.
On the idea that rightist objections to Woke are driving the recruiting crisis, I recall that some data-minded individual on the right (Lyman Stone?) presented some pretty persuasive evidence that it's not really true, that a much greater driver is decline of patriotism and trust in the military on the left. I just took a look for that argument, can't seem to find it, but would recommend taking it seriously.
IIRC the idea is that increasing distrust in the military on the right is "very online" and concentrated among the sort of people who are unlikely to join the military or encourage their kids to do so in the first place. Which, to be sure, is a group that includes myself. Meanwhile the decline among Democrat-leaning young people is extremely broad-based.
The collapse of Afghanistan was a disaster that I can't stop thinking about in terms of the corruption and incompetence it revealed about everyone involved in the US nation-building apparatus, including the military's top brass. My already-low opinion of them sunk further than I thought imaginable. But apparently I'm weird, everyone else has moved on, no one cares, no one involved was ever really even rebuked for it, so I don't know that it has damaged recruiting.
A lot of conservative veterans are spreading the word to the next gen not to enlist in the military.
I've heard people say that -- again, online. I just wonder how much it has left online and made it to the real world, particularly when it comes to the enlisted class and not the would-be officers. The older enlisted veterans that I know (and I know several, mainly through church connections) don't seem to be this way. They might shake their heads at some of what's happening, but I haven't heard any of them imply that it's no longer a good life choice. One of them recently had a daughter join the Navy, and he was very proud of it.
Following up, here's the piece I was thinking of:
https://themissingdatadepot.substack.com/p/the-militarys-white-democrat-problem
It's based on surveys that show an utter collapse in enthusiasm for the military and joining the military among white Democrats, while white Republicans are basically unchanged -- on a slight downward slope since 2018, but above 2015 levels.
The argument from the data is that white Democrats went from being roughly 70% as likely to join the military as white Republicans in 2015 to being around *15%* as likely in 2021. And the decline was even more severe among white Democrat *men*.
Maybe this can be debunked but I haven't seen anyone challenge it, I've just seen everyone keep on asserting that the shortfalls are coming from the right without any data to support it.
Regarding the adult bounce house article. When I was looking for spots to visit on our summer vacation I found a park geared towards preschoolers with nursery rhyme characters, etc. I noticed they were closing early one night during our trip to setup for a "party" night geared towards young adults. The lack of maturity in that generation is something I cannot understand.
As someone who married later than I should have, I had a girlfriend I dated for too long in my 20s who always wanted to do things like this. She was also a "Disney Adult". And honestly a very unhappy person, though she hid it reasonably well from most people.
Here's my take, after witnessing my share of this behavior from her and her friends:
1. It has its roots in a purposeless life full of anomie. The last time such a person really remembers being happy and possessing joie de vivre was as a child.
2. Life naturally becomes monotonous and starts to lose its color if you live it too long centered on your own entertainment. Rather than acknowledge that you need something else to bring life satisfaction as an adult and that the power to achieve it has been given to you, there's a temptation to try to find a way to just recapture that high from childhood.
3. It never works. No one is really having that good a time with these activities, but there's a lot of pressure to fake it, both from those around you and internally, to try to convince yourself. And, you know, it's *sort of* fun, and it's different. Maybe the next thing like this you try will be more fun.
Now, you could still ask, "what changed?" Surely there were single people chasing cheap and empty thrills 50 years ago -- but thrills of a more "adult" nature, rather than trying in vain to recapture the joy of childhood. On that part, I have some theories, but I'm not really sure.