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Lysander Spooner's avatar

I was unimpressed with Reeves' article. I don't disagree with the proposition that fathers, even if unmarried to the mothers of their children, play an important role in their children's lives, but much of what he had to say in the latter half of the piece was garbage.

He emphasizes this point about the single biggest explanatory factor in the rise of non-marital births is the decline of shotgun weddings, partly to justify his policy recommendation of "better access for both women and men to effective forms of contraception." He goes on:

"in 1977, among women with a low level of education, 26% who became pregnant outside marriage would get married before the birth. Now it’s 2% for that group. That puts a sharp empirical point on what might otherwise be a theoretical conversation. What about that 24% percent-point difference? Do we think the world was better when women who got pregnant outside of marriage felt obliged by social norms to get married? Or do we think that the world is better where they don’t? And if you believe at all in revealed preference, the fact that only 2% of them are choosing to get married now must tell us something."

He must not get out much, such that he thinks it's so obvious that the world is worse when there's social pressure to get married if you are pregnant that he can ask this question rhetorically. Notice a few things: he assumes it is primarily the women who don't want to get married, rather than the men. I'm sure the term "shotgun wedding" came about because the father of the bride had to force his daughter, rather than the cad, to the altar. He has very little to say about the welfare state and how that might change decisions on the margin about getting married. And why is the more recent data more so "revealed preference" than in 1977?

He goes on to say, "I think what it tells us, above all, is that the real problem here is very often unintended pregnancies." But he seems to think there is an inelastic demand curve for engaging in activities that lead to unintended pregnancies. Does he not think that a world in which shotgun weddings are expected will be a world with fewer unintended pregnancies?

I just don't see why someone can propose greater access to contraception as a "solution," to this problem without asking, "Why hasn't that worked by now?" Is it really a matter of access? I have a hard time believing this. Is it really safe and effective? Then why is abortion treated as a sacred right, especially among highly educated women, who would presumably have the means and ability to use such safe and effective contraception? Why would a pre-pill world have so many fewer unplanned pregnancies and out-of-wedlock births if the demand for pregnancy-inducing activities is inelastic? It seems like there's something missing and people like Reeves are not interested in asking these questions.

And then he poo poos Charles Murray's urging that elites "preach what they practice" for two reasons. First, he says, "First, people don’t need persuading. Most survey evidence says actually that marriage is still the ideal for most people, and especially for working class Americans. It’s not that people don’t think having kids within marriage is a good idea. It’s that for one reason or another, they’re finding it difficult to do so."

It's friggin' rich that he claims to believe in "revealed preference" and then accepts what people say in surveys over the preferences they actually demonstrate. But he doesn't acknowledge that the elite actually do avoid births out-of-wedlock at a much higher rate than the working class, even while they promote sillyness such as non-monogamy and post-familialism.

"The second problem is that I don’t think the American working class right now is in a terrifically receptive mood for lectures from liberal elites about how they should be living their lives. That’s just my political sense of it. I don’t have empirical evidence, and I could be wrong, but I just don’t feel like it’s going to go down very well right now, given our current politics."

He just seems terribly out of touch if he thinks the only method is literally preaching at people. Don't get me wrong: the Cathedral will preach their message and shove it down people's throats. But that's not all they do. They pump their message, which is the precise opposite of traditional family values, through the universities, K-12, libraries, TV and movies, and taxfunded NGOs. And it works.

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Lysander Spooner's avatar

I sure hope Driscoll shouted "HOW DARE YOU?!" at Josh Hawley.

I am skeptical of most beauty privilege research, as I think there is a publication bias when a plausible alternative explanation is that beautiful people have higher opportunity costs and this isn't accounted for in the research. Why might a beautiful professor, who could be a fashion model, get higher student evaluations than an average looking professor? Maybe because the beautiful one, who could be a fashion model, loves teaching so much and that love shines through how the course is delivered and the effort put forth, whereas the average looking professor has lower opportunity costs.

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