Good luck - although I am not totally your core audience, I chose a few Substacks and other causes to support through donations or subscription in the hope it expands their reach, including you. Your work first caught my attention in City Journal and your thoughts on cities, and I think conservatives in general need to remain focused on how to make them more livable and functional places as they do form the economic and cultural heart of most of the country, even as they lose ground to suburbs and exurbs that are able to offer live/work/play opportunities as well.
A general comment about the future is that although I am very pleased that Trump won (as the alternative was too dishonest and destructive to our society, not because I love the Donald himself), it's just a bridge to another era. I agree that a cultural reset is coming and we are are just on the front edge of the fight to shape what comes next. There are hopeful signs I see, particularly as a parent of teenagers, but the effects of what comes out of the next 5-10 years will have very long term effects I believe.
Congratulations, Aaron, on a solid 2024. I read a lot of books in parallel, so still haven't quite finished it, but gotta say 'Life in the Negative World' was better than expected, having read your newsletters for years and anticipating a rehash. There was new material and just your putting it all together, in way that was both sobering yet hopeful, broke new ground.
A few points and suggestions that occurred to me after reading this recap:
1. Can't help but love the term "overproduction of elites". I'm guessing it's a symptom of a society in decline, and suspect it's affected too many well-off evangelicals, too.
2. Is there really evidence that the decline in birth rates is anywhere near a plateau? I've become increasingly alarmed this past year by the growing acceptance among young adults of not having children at all. It's a mentality that seems to be spreading rapidly.
3. I found myself referring several times, in conversations this past year, to your articles on vice. It was helpful to have a category, rather than a single moral issue such as gambling or prostitution, to talk about, because most all these moral issues are trending and Christians have lost a language for talking about it.
4. In consideration of #3, there really does seem to be a growing spirit of lawlessness infecting our society, everyone is feeling it, and the Church needs to be pointing it out and preaching against it.
Thanks for your hard work, and wishing you and your family a great 2025!
1. "Overproduction of elites" is Turchin's framing, and I can recommend his most recent book (haven't read the older ones though Scott Alexander wrote a good review of them). Turchin understands things cyclically, so elite overproduction is not a mark of decline so much as one of a society that is headed towards a reckoning, as overproduced elites tend to engage in destructive conflict with one another. But afterwards, if the country holds together, the subsequent period is usually comparatively harmonious and constructive.
2. Gen Z will have fewer kids and fewer marriages than the Millennials, but I think it's a reasonable guess to say that it's likelier than not that they're close to the plateau, especially in the US. I think at least some countries will enter death spirals insofar as hyper-gerontocracy produces incentives for youth to emigrate, and I don't think the US will be inclined to bar these sorts of immigrants if they come from Europe or the East Asian democracies. For example, Ukraine was already in this sort of death spiral before the present war, and the war will probably end up accelerating it.
Aaron has said -- and I agree -- "decline produces concentration". The US is the center of gravity for economic activity on earth, so if the entire human race is in decline, then a higher, not lower, percentage of the earth's population and economic activity will tend to concentrate in America. The economic incentives for people to colonize virgin land have evaporated, so if places like Ukraine or South Korea become depopulated, there is no economic reason in the present age for them to be repopulated.
Just to add, I just saw this note about Japanese successfully suing kindergartens for "disturbing the peace", which I just learned about -- a possible consequence of growing Japanese hyper-gerontocracy:
I think people who really want to have families will tend to flee cultures that are hostile towards family formation and flock to cultures that are amenable to it, and the US, or at least large pockets of it, will remain on the relatively amenable side. Hyper-gerontocracy will cause more bifurcation along this line. Sometimes people will be able to find family-friendly environments within their country, but at other times it will require emigration.
I actually know a South Korean lady in my town married to a white American, both devout Southern Baptists, they have 4 mostly-grown kids, which would make her an extraordinary fertility outlier in South Korea but doesn't stand out too much among pious Christians in America. I suspect she was a harbinger of a larger trend.
Thanks for the link, that Japanese kindergarten article really struck a nerve. "Make the kids stay inside, so the old folks don't have to be bothered!!" is not my idea of a healthy society.
But regarding your comment about Korea, I just listened to a podcast this week saying that, as bad as Japan's aging society has gotten, in East Asia it's now more of a middle-ranking country, compared to the others.
South Korea's fertility rate has really fallen off a cliff, which is even more unsettling when you consider it has a relatively high proportion of Christians.
This is correct, though in isolation I still think we'd see Japan's population pyramid as catastrophic.
There was also a story emerging out of Korea maybe a year ago about an increasing number of restaurants banning children. This story out of Japan is just illustrating that at the grassroots level, cultural hostility to children is showing up in different forms in multiple countries in the region, even as their governments are attempting in vain to promote fertility from the top down. I'll be curious to listen for reports of child hostility emerging in fast-aging parts of Europe as well, which are primarily in Southern and Eastern Europe.
As for South Korean Christians, I don't understand them that well but IIRC Christians there have zero fertility advantage relative to seculars, maybe even a disadvantage. And also I don't think Christianity has been passed down to the younger generation, the faith has collapsed there among the young. So it feels like SK Christianity is basically Mainline in cultural sensibilities, even if on average its theology is far more conservative than that of our Mainliners; SK Christians are literally highly evangelical in that they send out a lot of missionaries per capita.
But also, again, Christians are overrepresented among Korean immigrants to the US, and their fertility is significantly higher than their countrymen back home. It could be that Koreans wanting to live a pro-natal Christian life pattern have an elevated tendency to leave Korea, which suppresses Christian fertility there and contributes to the doom spiral.
Our church supports a minister in the DRC, one of the few large countries that still has a high fertility rate. The region suffered the worst war since WW2 and many parts are an absolute backwater, yet if you look at demographics, they may well be the future.
Generally agree with your take on macro trends, at least as it applies to the US. I agree we're degrading but not collapsing. Some countries might spiral and collapse in the face of some of these trends, e.g. post-familialism, but probably not the US.
Also, this is the first comment I can recall of yours on climate change. On the one hand I would be curious for you to expand on what you're seeing, but on the other, talking too much about it seems like it could cost you subs, unfortunately.
In the back of my mind, sometimes I wonder if my choice to plant roots in an especially hot part of the country is such a good idea, if things *might* get even hotter. And "might" is the operative word.
Yep… native Houstonian here. I thought it was hot before, but last two summers have been bad, even by Houston standards. Unlike Miami, at least we're not sinking into the Gulf unless Greenland melts. 😬
I'm particularly interested in to hear as your thoughts develop that “evangelical elite problem", and practical ways to address that.
I think that's crucial to posit some ways to address that in our current cultural context.
Thanks for all you do - keep up the great work.
Thanks!
Look at me, mom. I'm a success.
Good luck - although I am not totally your core audience, I chose a few Substacks and other causes to support through donations or subscription in the hope it expands their reach, including you. Your work first caught my attention in City Journal and your thoughts on cities, and I think conservatives in general need to remain focused on how to make them more livable and functional places as they do form the economic and cultural heart of most of the country, even as they lose ground to suburbs and exurbs that are able to offer live/work/play opportunities as well.
A general comment about the future is that although I am very pleased that Trump won (as the alternative was too dishonest and destructive to our society, not because I love the Donald himself), it's just a bridge to another era. I agree that a cultural reset is coming and we are are just on the front edge of the fight to shape what comes next. There are hopeful signs I see, particularly as a parent of teenagers, but the effects of what comes out of the next 5-10 years will have very long term effects I believe.
Thanks you.
I think it will be interesting to see what the new cultural normal ends up being.
Congratulations, Aaron, on a solid 2024. I read a lot of books in parallel, so still haven't quite finished it, but gotta say 'Life in the Negative World' was better than expected, having read your newsletters for years and anticipating a rehash. There was new material and just your putting it all together, in way that was both sobering yet hopeful, broke new ground.
A few points and suggestions that occurred to me after reading this recap:
1. Can't help but love the term "overproduction of elites". I'm guessing it's a symptom of a society in decline, and suspect it's affected too many well-off evangelicals, too.
2. Is there really evidence that the decline in birth rates is anywhere near a plateau? I've become increasingly alarmed this past year by the growing acceptance among young adults of not having children at all. It's a mentality that seems to be spreading rapidly.
3. I found myself referring several times, in conversations this past year, to your articles on vice. It was helpful to have a category, rather than a single moral issue such as gambling or prostitution, to talk about, because most all these moral issues are trending and Christians have lost a language for talking about it.
4. In consideration of #3, there really does seem to be a growing spirit of lawlessness infecting our society, everyone is feeling it, and the Church needs to be pointing it out and preaching against it.
Thanks for your hard work, and wishing you and your family a great 2025!
1. "Overproduction of elites" is Turchin's framing, and I can recommend his most recent book (haven't read the older ones though Scott Alexander wrote a good review of them). Turchin understands things cyclically, so elite overproduction is not a mark of decline so much as one of a society that is headed towards a reckoning, as overproduced elites tend to engage in destructive conflict with one another. But afterwards, if the country holds together, the subsequent period is usually comparatively harmonious and constructive.
2. Gen Z will have fewer kids and fewer marriages than the Millennials, but I think it's a reasonable guess to say that it's likelier than not that they're close to the plateau, especially in the US. I think at least some countries will enter death spirals insofar as hyper-gerontocracy produces incentives for youth to emigrate, and I don't think the US will be inclined to bar these sorts of immigrants if they come from Europe or the East Asian democracies. For example, Ukraine was already in this sort of death spiral before the present war, and the war will probably end up accelerating it.
Aaron has said -- and I agree -- "decline produces concentration". The US is the center of gravity for economic activity on earth, so if the entire human race is in decline, then a higher, not lower, percentage of the earth's population and economic activity will tend to concentrate in America. The economic incentives for people to colonize virgin land have evaporated, so if places like Ukraine or South Korea become depopulated, there is no economic reason in the present age for them to be repopulated.
Just to add, I just saw this note about Japanese successfully suing kindergartens for "disturbing the peace", which I just learned about -- a possible consequence of growing Japanese hyper-gerontocracy:
https://substack.com/@konichivalue/note/c-83423509
I think people who really want to have families will tend to flee cultures that are hostile towards family formation and flock to cultures that are amenable to it, and the US, or at least large pockets of it, will remain on the relatively amenable side. Hyper-gerontocracy will cause more bifurcation along this line. Sometimes people will be able to find family-friendly environments within their country, but at other times it will require emigration.
I actually know a South Korean lady in my town married to a white American, both devout Southern Baptists, they have 4 mostly-grown kids, which would make her an extraordinary fertility outlier in South Korea but doesn't stand out too much among pious Christians in America. I suspect she was a harbinger of a larger trend.
Thanks for the link, that Japanese kindergarten article really struck a nerve. "Make the kids stay inside, so the old folks don't have to be bothered!!" is not my idea of a healthy society.
But regarding your comment about Korea, I just listened to a podcast this week saying that, as bad as Japan's aging society has gotten, in East Asia it's now more of a middle-ranking country, compared to the others.
South Korea's fertility rate has really fallen off a cliff, which is even more unsettling when you consider it has a relatively high proportion of Christians.
This is correct, though in isolation I still think we'd see Japan's population pyramid as catastrophic.
There was also a story emerging out of Korea maybe a year ago about an increasing number of restaurants banning children. This story out of Japan is just illustrating that at the grassroots level, cultural hostility to children is showing up in different forms in multiple countries in the region, even as their governments are attempting in vain to promote fertility from the top down. I'll be curious to listen for reports of child hostility emerging in fast-aging parts of Europe as well, which are primarily in Southern and Eastern Europe.
As for South Korean Christians, I don't understand them that well but IIRC Christians there have zero fertility advantage relative to seculars, maybe even a disadvantage. And also I don't think Christianity has been passed down to the younger generation, the faith has collapsed there among the young. So it feels like SK Christianity is basically Mainline in cultural sensibilities, even if on average its theology is far more conservative than that of our Mainliners; SK Christians are literally highly evangelical in that they send out a lot of missionaries per capita.
But also, again, Christians are overrepresented among Korean immigrants to the US, and their fertility is significantly higher than their countrymen back home. It could be that Koreans wanting to live a pro-natal Christian life pattern have an elevated tendency to leave Korea, which suppresses Christian fertility there and contributes to the doom spiral.
Our church supports a minister in the DRC, one of the few large countries that still has a high fertility rate. The region suffered the worst war since WW2 and many parts are an absolute backwater, yet if you look at demographics, they may well be the future.
Yeah, Japan's fertility is far from the worst these days.
Thank you!
Aaron, congrats on such a successful year!
Generally agree with your take on macro trends, at least as it applies to the US. I agree we're degrading but not collapsing. Some countries might spiral and collapse in the face of some of these trends, e.g. post-familialism, but probably not the US.
Also, this is the first comment I can recall of yours on climate change. On the one hand I would be curious for you to expand on what you're seeing, but on the other, talking too much about it seems like it could cost you subs, unfortunately.
In the back of my mind, sometimes I wonder if my choice to plant roots in an especially hot part of the country is such a good idea, if things *might* get even hotter. And "might" is the operative word.
Yep… native Houstonian here. I thought it was hot before, but last two summers have been bad, even by Houston standards. Unlike Miami, at least we're not sinking into the Gulf unless Greenland melts. 😬